Trading Before Release (Short Term)

Trading before and during the release of a new game can always be a difficult hurdle to overcome.  With new additions added each year, the market instantly becomes that little bit more unpredictable as the general player has their attention directed to these new exciting features. This being said, there will always be tried and tested trading methods that remain effective, alongside riskier investments with a much larger potential return. In this guide we will be looking at the different approaches we could make to maximize efficiency in the initial week or two.
 

Considering The Player-Base

Starting off with the facts, during early access the average FUT player will be extremely limited as to how many coins they have available. Yes, we will see superstar stacked teams within the first day, but this will be due to either incredible pack luck or simply spending a small fortune on FIFA points. This leads us to the situation we are all currently in, the reason you are probably reading this post, everybody will be looking to "trade". Now the reason I say "trade" is because the majority of people will be limited to tools and techniques that they have used before or seen influential figures use time after time. BPM (Bronze Pack Method) and sniping are the two that come to mind, and while effective they can initially drop in value to so many players attempting them.

Another fact we need to keep in mind is that the caliber of player in demand will be significantly lower than we are use to. Players simply will not have the coins to afford top names and if we couple this with the limited supply available, it is unlikely that this is ever where we direct our attention when it comes to starting off with trading.
 

Considering What Sells

Just like the above, this is all based of previous years and is simply how a market works. If players cannot afford their first choice, they simply move down the list until players within their budget become available. Imagine we start off, grind through a bunch of games and generate 30,000 coins. Depending on prices, we could hypothetically jump onto the market and buy a great tier 2 player such as Martial, sinking every last coin we have into them. Great, we finally made a huge upgrade to our team, the only issue is we now have no coins left for position modifiers, chemistry styles, contracts or even fitness for this new player, we are now forced to repeat this process from before until we can pick up our second, third or fourth player etc.

Now I am not suggesting that players such as Martial will not sell, I am simply suggesting that the majority of people won't be aiming quite so high and hence the market is a lot thinner than that of tier 3/4 players. Picking up Martial for 30,000 coins and instantly selling on for 31,000 may seem like a win, but after tax you are left with 29,450 coins, you actually made a loss. Even if you are able to sell him for 32,000 coins you will only make a 400 coin profit. People are very careful with listing players at the start of a cycle, and even when such a card is listed for 20,000 coins just imagine how many others will be attempting to snipe it?

Now if we repeated this process, but turned our attention to a tier 4 player such as Robertson (the new Liverpool LB), how would the possible results look? Well to start with he would be packed a lot more and hence availability on the market would be much greater. Due to this we would be dealing with a player with a much larger demand as more people would instantly be able to afford him. Then the final fact is that he is still a strong player within his position, we aren't just picking a player who is trash, he has well rounded stats and will likely hold his spot down until that premium upgrade is available.

With the hypothetical pricing again, let's say he goes for 3,000 coins initially. We have a lot more of him being packed, hence a lot more entering the market, and therefore a load more sniping or biding opportunities to win him, this is our first plus. As the card is only 3,000 coins, people will happily undercut the market selling for say 2,800 coins as it is "only" a 200 coin loss. If we are sniping Robertson and winning them at 2,800 coins, we are making 50 coins per card, nothing fantastic but its profit. In reality, the volume of cards you are able to win bids on or snipe for say 2,500 coins will be more than sufficient, now these wins will pay 350 coins per card. Then you have those huge wins where somebody will list or you will win a bid for say 1,000 coins (it happens more than you may think with the lower tier players), this win pays out a massive 1,850 coins! If you are consistent, and pick up any card with profit available, these 3 scenarios together very quickly add up.

Think about how often these players are packed, how many others will be wanting to trade with them and hence what the likelihood of success is from trading with them.
 

BPM

Bronze pack method, possibly my favorite trading tool simply because of how easy yet effective it is. The single largest benefit to this method is how there is never a correct or incorrect time to use it, you are simply opening bronze packs and then selling the contents. Sadly, like with any method is still has its downsides and they are what we will be looking at here.

BPM is the most common trading method, is promoted by almost every influential figure who streams or makes videos and will therefore likely be where most people start attempting to generate coins. Now usually this isn't an issue as with the inclusion of SBC's demand for the contents of these packs has never been higher, however during the start of a new cycle, which cards really carry an above average level of demand? Unlike most trading methods the prices here never fluctuate, the cost is always 400 coins to open the pack and hence the market needs to be able to replenish what you spend. With the extremely large quantities of FIFA points being spent on gold packs, your premium items such as squad fitness cards or healing cards are unlikely to hold such a premium price-tag, especially with the initial lack of game time available on early access and the exclusion of weekend league during the first few weeks.

On release, the quantity of SBC's available will also be extremely limited, with potentially just two league ones coming into play. Again, these players we pack will hold value for the future, other leagues being released, marquee match-ups and a whole heap of other challenges, but we can fill our club up with this method whenever we see fit, during release we are looking to obtain cards and then offload them just as quickly, something BPM is unlikely to provide.

Now in no way am I saying that BPM will not be effective, the cards that you pack hold both initial and future value. I am simply suggesting that while coin totals are lower and the market attempting to settle, there will almost always be a more efficient, more profitable way of investing your coins during this period.
 

Sniping & Mass Bidding

Another two well known methods, both of which we spoke about above, but how can we maximize the efficiency when using them? There a couple of simple methods here that can help you judge just how successful your targets are and how to determine when you should change things up.

The frequency they appear. How often is this player being listed? Are you able to place 20 bids on this player before you reach a time remaining you would like to avoid? Are you finding one pop up while sniping ever 30 seconds or every 5 minutes? These are clear indications as to just how viable trading with this player is at any given time.

The quantity you win. While it is fantastic if the frequency is high, if you are winning hardly any your targets it quickly becomes irrelevant. If you are constantly being outbid, or are too slow with the sniping, it suggests that there is a lot of others attempting to trade with the same player. Don't start worrying about your prices, or your lack of speed, simply accept that there will be better targets out there and head out to find them.

The profit you expect. How much are you expecting to make, on average, with each successful bid/snipe? Are you aiming to high that you are simply never winning anything? Are you aiming so low that your hourly profit is laughable? It is a fine balancing act and one that takes time to perfect, but as long as you remain realistic your targets should remain achievable.

Having a rotation. This is probably the most important factor when attempting these methods. Just because you had great success with a player in the morning, doesn't mean that it will work in the afternoon. Creating yourself a shortlist of between 10 and 20 players allows you to simply cycle through them, avoiding any that appear to be heavily in contention at any given time.

Selling. With these types of investment, we are typical looking for a quick win. Picking the player up for X, we are instantly looking to relist for Y and take our profit. These type of methods should be providing instant financial gain and should never effect our longer term investments.
 

Price Fluctuations During The Day

The afternoon in England, is the middle of the night in Australia and the morning in the USA, this alone dictates the amount of players active at any given time. During periods where a large number of people are playing, demand will immediately increase simply because more people are attempting to obtain a card at the same time. The reverse works exactly the same, when the servers are quieter the demand is significantly less and hence in theory you have a better chance of securing a bargain on a bid.

We need to keep this in mind when it comes to buying and selling players. Are we buying at a time when supply is limited? Are we buying at a time when demand is higher than normal? If the answer is yes, we are currently in a sellers market and prices may be sitting at their peak, obviously this makes for a fairly poor investment. Are we buying at a time when supply is flooding the market? Are we buying at a time when demand is lower than normal? This time, if the answer is yes we are buying within a buyers market, this is the absolute ideal time to pick up players.

Provided we have done our research and we know our price brackets (what a player should sell for and hence the expected profit), then this isn't as big a concern, it will likely mean that you simply win more/less of the given player. The real importance here is to study the market, use FUTBIN to track hourly, daily or weekly price swings, and then use this information to your advantage. The market is the same for everybody, the only variable is the user who is navigating it. If you are more prepared, better equipped and have completed adequate research, this is where you will gain the advantage.