Investing With OTW

With the global release of FIFA 18 just around the corner and the early access in full swing, the launch of the highly awaited OTW cards is just around the corner!

What exactly are OTW cards? How do they operate? Why should we care? 

Well OTW (one to watch) cards highlight some of the biggest fresh transfers from the previous window. These players receive a new special card that mimics the stats of the regular base card. During the course of the domestic season, if this player receives an inform, the OTW card immediately copies these new stats and automatically upgrades to match the highest inform available. Keep in mind that based off last years system, once the season is over this card will no longer upgrade and if a different special version is awarded, for example a man of the match card, once again the OTW will not changed.
 

Finding The Value

As mentioned above, OTW cards upgrade themselves in line with inform cards received by the player. When we initially consider buying this card over their regular one, we are buying for one reason alone, potential. While all of these cards are exciting and carry some level of potential, we need to keep in mind that some are more likely to receive upgrades than others and that some upgrades will in turn create a much bigger price increase than others. To demonstrate this we will look at some of the data from FIFA 17.

Player Positions

The first factor for us to consider here is how easy it is to obtain a TOTW card for each position. Historically a defender has needed a combination of a strong defensive performance (usually a clean sheet), an assist or a goal. A striker however is usually judged on a single variable, how many goals they scored.

The average team consists of 4/5 defenders against just 1/2 strikers, this is yet another factor that falls in the attackers favour. Alongside this, the general weighting of attackers vs defenders featuring in the TOTW usually favours the attackers. 

League & Club

The bigger the club, the more likely it is they will produce stronger results on a consistent basis. This is a fact and is proven by the likes of Juventus, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich time after time. This makes obtaining a special card all that much easier for players within such squads.

If you surround yourself with other superstars, you instantly increase the likelihood of a clean sheet, a solid midfield, the delivery (assists) and hence goals. The larger teams have a lot more favourable matchups over the course of the year which in turn should provide a stronger chance at an inform.

The Starting Eleven

A fairly simple one here, if a player isn't a regular starter then the chances of an inform are immediately cut. A clear example of this would be comparing Kante to Sanches from last year. 

Both players were in huge demand throughout the season and both played a defensive midfielder role. The key difference was Kante started almost every game while Sanches was lucky to come on as a substitute. The result reflected this with Kante receiving special cards and Sanches receiving nothing.

Initial Release

During this period the market is a frenzy. The game is still new, player prices have yet to stabilise and hence the majority of players struggle to estimate where a cards true value lies. This mayhem carries over with the release of OTW cards and can often provide dramatic price swings by the hour.

The goal here is to simply predict where these cards prices will settle. We don't need a price number, but we need to be able to comfortably believe that the card is either too expensive or too cheap before we buy or sell respectively.

Investment Cycle

With the normal NIF (non inform) cards on the market, prices follow a traditional pattern. They are highest during the first few weeks of the game and then gradually become cheaper as the cycle progresses. OTW cards also follow this pattern, however there is a whole rollercoaster of changes that take place along the way.

After the weekend match finishes, prices are usually at their lowest point. There is no hype, no immediate chance of an inform and hence no influx of investments. Players holding this card are usually using it opposed to investing.

As the week progresses and the next match day approaches, hype slowly starts to build again as people start picking up these cards in hope of a top performance. Investment is still possible here, but the profit margins are slightly lower.

During the build up to the match, last minute investments are made and prices begin to increase. Buying here is usually buying at an inflated price and hence a much riskier investment. At this stage you are all in hoping that a goal is scored or ultimately an inform is achieved, it is effectively a gamble.

After the match (provided nothing significant took place), we see prices begin to drop again and the rollercoaster returns to the start.

Investment Opportunities

While investing can be difficult, investing in OTW cards has become extremely simple due to the repeat pattern they follow. Before we entertain the idea of investing here, research is required. We need to know how much these cards are typically selling for (outside of match hype), what the supply quantity is like, what the demand quantity is like, if they are likely to start the next game and the reason for why we believe this is a good investment.

While prices increase on the build up to a game, they rapidly decrease towards the end. This is usually the optimal time to be buying these players, provided the price is right. As soon as we pull the trigger we need to already have a selling plan in place. Are they playing next week? What's my expected profit? When should I offload the card? Answering these questions makes for an extremely solid investment.

Alongside using the normal cycle, we also have the option of making reaction investments. If you are watching the match, Lukaku scores and you are instantly on the market buying him, there is a strong chance that you are able to buy before hype kicks in and then sell during it (or hold if you are feeling really lucky). This method provides more risk and requires your reactions to be lightning fast. Once again it is important to know the normal price to ensure you aren't buying an already inflated card.

How Hype Effects The Market

Hype provides a key role when making a decision around investments. Is a players price inflated because they are a new signing? Is it inflated because of a great performance? Is it inflated due to popular content creators and their love for a card rubbing off on viewers? All of these reasons can effect the price of a card, increasing its price on a short term basis and hence making any investment unreliable at best.

This hype carries over to OTW cards in the same manner as above, but is also aided with additional hype during real life matches. Whether it's simply being named in the starting lineup, scoring an early goal or simply looking solid in defence, people will begin investing in these cards as a match progresses. These additional investments will cause prices to temporarily rise causing a fake market price. Investing during this period becomes extremely risky, while selling becomes an investors paradise.

Always use resources available such as FUTBIN to monitor a players price history prior to pulling the trigger on an investment.